Are the Flathead’s Native Fish “Stable”?

There has been a lot of lecturing lately by opponents of native fish recovery regarding the misuse of the terms “stable” and “secure” They seem to feel that if they can unilaterally declare that the fish populations in Flathead Lake are “stable” or “secure” there will be no need for further management action. I thought I might examine more closely the idea of stability in these fish populations.

First of all, the idea of “secure” or “stable” bull trout and lake trout populations comes from the misreading of a ten-year old addendum to the Flathead Lake and River Co-Management Plan. In the original plan, the term “secure” was meant to indicate that threatened fish would be around long enough for results of the Plan to show some effect. Stable was never meant to be a goal of management. In fact, the stated goal of the ten-year plan was to, “Increase and protect native trout populations (bull trout and westslope cutthroat trout).” Not to stabilize populations at some very low level. In the definition of stability to which native fish opponents refer;

“Secure levels do not represent target or management goals. The Co-Management Plan is specific in its goal to increase native trout populations. Secure levels will help direct future management activities. At this time, regardless of what these levels are, managers will try to increase native trout numbers from current levels.”

That increase never occurred during the term of the Plan. Here is the definition of secure levels from the Co-Management Plan:

“We define the term secure as the level of abundance and range of distribution such that bull trout and westslope cutthroat trout exhibit all life histories and are unlikely to go extinct. This assumes no major unforeseen changes such as climate shifts, new species introductions (including diseases) or range expansions, loss of connectivity between lake, river and tributary streams, or radical changes in land management or physical habitat quality.”

We have already violated several of the “major unforeseen changes”; Climate shifts: due to global warming.  New species introductions: Northern pike are consuming an estimated 13,000 bull trout and 30,000 cutthroats each year. Range expansions: Lake trout have invaded 10 of 12 lakes on the west side of Glacier National Park as well as Swan Lake and the Stillwater Basin, reducing fishing opportunities for other sport fish.

Strategies for management were based on whether Flathead Lake populations of bull trout and lake trout were “increasing”, “decreasing” or “stable”.

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Commercial lake trout fishermen claim they are catching fewer fish so, the population must be decreasing. Population sampling done annually by MFWP shows the lake trout population to be stable or even increasing slightly over the past 15 years. Harvest of lake trout in the Mack Days fishing contests continues to increase each year. Participants seem to have no trouble catching 50-80 lake trout per day. This spring the harvest is on track to set a new record. In addition to the number of lake trout within the lake, the Flathead Lake population has expanded to compete with and/or extirpate native fish populations in Quartz Lake, Middle and Lower Quartz, Logging Lake, Bowman Lake, Harrison Lake, Kintla Lake, Lake McDonald and Rogers Lake in Glacier National Park. Park Service and USFWS scientists consider Cerulean and Akokala lakes to be vulnerable to infestation by lake trout. Lake trout have invaded Swan Lake and fishing opportunities there are plummeting. They have now moved upstream into Lindbergh and Holland lakes. CSKT biologists believe that creation of a new morphotype of lake trout that live deep in the lake and feed only on mysis shrimp is evidence of an expansion of lake trout exploiting new habitat within Flathead Lake.

Is the bull trout population increasing, decreasing, or stable?

The primary tool to enumerate the bull trout populations is the fall redd (or spawning bed) counts in eight index reaches of spawning streams in the North and Middle forks of the Flathead. During the decade of the 1980s, MFWP counted an average of 392 bull trout spawning redds in the index reaches. In the past ten years, 2002-2011, the average number of bull trout redds was 189, a clear decline in the number of spawning fish. Also, during the 1980s a healthy and popular fishery for bull trout existed in the Flathead River system. Reports by MFWP show that a harvest of 5,000 to 6,000 bull trout occurred annually during the spawning run. Today, bull trout are listed as Threatened under the Endangered Species Act and fishing for them within the Flathead River system is expressly forbidden due to extremely low numbers. There is no example in the literature of a bull trout population that was able to survive the introduction of lake trout without precipitous decline or extinction.

So, when you hear that bull trout are “stable” in the Flathead Basin and that there is no agreement on the data, you might first consider the source and secondly I advise you to take a look at some of the extensive and independently gathered data we have assembled on the Flathead Valley Trout Unlimited website and make up your own mind based on factual data and not on opinion from commercial interests who believe they will profit from more lake trout.